A breakdown of the run-in for fourth
With four sides separated by just four points in the race for the final Champions League spot and varying remaining fixture lists and even games played, it can be tough to get a handle on things.
Here are the remaining fixture lists for the four sides, ranked in order of fixture difficulty (with the average league opponent points from that fixture this season):
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Tottenham | Aston Villa |
| 4. @Arsenal (0.50) | 2. @Man. United (0.29) | 1. @Chelsea (0.29) | 2. @Chelsea (0.29) |
| 10. @Fulham (0.79) | 8. @Birmingham (0.79) | 3. @Man. City (0.31) | 3. @Man. City (0.31) |
| 12. @Sunderland (0.92) | 13. @Burnley (1.00) | 12. @Sunderland (0.92) | 16. @Hull City (1.08) |
| 13. @Burnley (1.00) | 15. Chelsea (1.07) | 13. @Burnley (1.00) | 18. @Stoke City (1.14) |
| 17. Aston Villa (1.08) | 16. @Hull City (1.08) | 14. Arsenal (1.07) | 23. @Bolton (1.43) |
| 19. Man. United (1.21) | 24. @Wigan (1.54) | 15. Chelsea (1.07) | 24. @Wigan (1.54) |
| 20. Tottenham (1.21) | 30. Fulham (1.93) | 18. @Stoke City (1.14) | 28. Birmingham (1.77) |
| 21. @West Ham (1.21) | 32. West Ham (2.07) | 34. Bolton (2.08) | 29. Everton (1.85) |
| 28. Birmingham (1.77) | 36. Portsmouth (2.29) | 36. Portsmouth (2.29) | 31. @Portsmouth (2.00) |
| 29. Everton (1.85) | 38. Sunderland (2.36) | 37. Blackburn (2.36) | 35. Wolves (2.08) |
| 33. Wigan (2.07) | 37. Blackburn (2.36) | ||
| 38. Sunderland (2.36) | |||
| 1.24 average | 1.44 average | 1.25 average | 1.52 average |
Breaking the fixtures down by category:
Loss expected:
City (1): @Arsenal
Liverpool (1): @United
Spurs (2): @Chelsea, @City
Villa (2): @Chlsea, @City
Draw expected:
City (7): @Fulham, @Sunderland, @Burnley, Villa, United, Spurs, @West Ham
Liverpool (5): @Birmingham, @Burnley, Chelsea, @Hull
Spurs (5): @Sunderland, @Burnley, Arsenal, Chelsea, @Stoke
Villa (3): @Hull, @Stoke, @Bolton
Borderline win/draw:
City (2): Birmingham, Everton
Liverpool (2): @Wigan, Fulham
Spurs (0):
Villa (3): @Wigan, Birmingham, Everton
Win expected:
City (1): Wigan
Liverpool (4): West Ham, Portsmouth, Sunderland
Spurs (3): Bolton, Portsmouth, Blackburn
Villa (4): at Portsmouth, Wolves, Blackburn, Sunderland
Advantage: Liverpool and Villa.
